In our October 28, 2013 commentary (“An Early 21st Century Narrative: The Age of Renewables“), we asserted that–due to increasing domestic crude oil production and the ongoing adoption of renewable fuels–U.S. energy independence on a national level is a foregone conclusion. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) chronicles that last year, as much as 84% of total U.S. energy demand was fulfilled by domestic sources, the highest level in 30 years.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Energy Production at 30-year High Relative to Consumption
Interestingly, 10% of our domestic energy production now comes from renewables (including hydro, solar, wind, biofuels, and thermal). We believe government agencies in general are too pessimistic regarding the trajectory of the increasing impact of renewables on U.S. and Developed Markets’ energy production. For example, Germany (a country not known for its sunshine) recently generated over half of its electricity from solar for the first time, while Great Britain’s installed solar capacity doubled over the last year–none of which anyone has foreseen. Because of the rapid adoption of renewables, as well as the ongoing shale revolution, we continue to believe that U.S. energy independence on the national level is a foregone conclusion.
What we are more interested in–as investors and global citizens–are two more ambitious goals: 1) energy independence at the community or household level through microgrids and a “smart,” decentralized distribution system, and 2) bringing electricity and heating to more undeveloped areas of the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 1.3 billion people today are still without access to electricity, while 2.6 billion people have no access to clean cooking facilities.
This is a glaring social problem not just in Sub-Saharan Africa but in other developing countries/regions, such as India, China, and Developing Asia. e.g. The IEA contends that as much as 25% of India’s population today have no access to electricity. A country where a vast segment of its population is disenfranchised is both a significant impediment for future economic growth and social harmony.
According to the IEA’s 2014 World Energy Investment Outlook, global policy makers and corporations are projected to invest $40.2 trillion into our energy production and transportation infrastructure from now till 2035. 59% of these funds will be used to maintain current production, while 41% will be for new development. Two interesting trends are expected to continue over the next 20 years:
- There is a decisive trend towards investing into renewables and efficiency programs in both developed and emerging market countries;
- The role of public policy makers in shaping global energy policy has been on the rise, and will continue to rise for the foreseeable future as governments set goals for renewables adoption (e.g. California’s 33% renewables goal by 2020) and new efficiency standards.
Within the developed world, these two trends are driven by environmental and domestic energy security concerns. Within Emerging Markets, however, these are driven by more fundamental concerns. For example, economic growth and the rising cost of energy has led to a significant deterioration of China’s and India’s trade accounts in recent years. The rising cost of energy (combined with significant gold imports) was instrumental in causing India’s financial crisis last summer.
Exhibit 2: Oil Import Bills of Net Importing Developing Countries on the Rise (source: IEA)
Since 2011 (the IEA’s last study on Emerging Markets’ energy imports), energy dependence in countries like China and India has continued to rise. In fact, China’s oil imports are projected to rise above that of the U.S. sometime this year. As such, investments in renewables in both China and India are not only necessary due to environmental concerns, but national security concerns as well.
Finally, as discussed above, there is also a dire need to empower those who currently have no access to electricity in many developing countries, including India. This is crucial to sustain high economic/productivity growth, as well as for long-term social cohesion (having electricity inherently increases access to education, knowledge, and healthier lifestyles). The IEA estimates that an additional $641 billion in investments is needed to achieve universal access to electricity by 2030, $135 billion of which is needed in India. In light of the $40.2 trillion of projected investments in the global energy sector over the next 20 years, $641 billion is achievable. However, the IEA also stresses that much of these investments would need to be made in rural areas with little or no access to any existing infrastructures (e.g. power lines or even paved roads). Since the costs of building a centralized grid (or expanding the current grid) to rural areas are prohibitively high, the only alternative is to install microgrids or roof-top solar in such undeveloped rural areas. The age of renewables will thus not only bring U.S. energy independence, but increased energy access to the rest of the world as well.
Exhibit 3: Additional Investment Required for Universal Access to Electricity ($billion in year 2010 dollars; source: IEA)