Happy New Year. Following is our 2013 price and risk outlook for selected major asset classes. We are publishing our annual price and risk outlook for the first time, so a little explanation is required. Our rating score summarizes our view on where we believe prices will head over the next 12 months. A rating of “5” is considered neutral–close to the asset class’ historical median return. Our risk score summarizes the probability for significant deviation from our price outlook. For example, gold’s risk score of 8 suggests the significant possibility that the asset class could remain elevated near $1,700 an ounce (as opposed to our downward forecast), as the price/demand of gold depends on many differentiated factors, such as jewelry demand in China and India; as well as a reemergence of systemic risk in peripheral Europe. The outlook on global monetary, fiscal, and global bank regulatory/lending policy is anything but certain in 2013.
More details will be provided in our CB Capital’s inaugural monthly newsletter. It will be published in the next 7 to 10 days, and will be provided to selected clients. All the best for 2013.